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  • Article title
  • Abstract
  • Key words
  • Introduction
  • Methods
    • Collation of observation record data
    • Environmental drivers
    • Spatial bias removal
    • Temporal bias removal
    • Environmental characterisation of records
    • Model training and evaluation
  • Real-time, days-ahead forecasts of event probability
    • Mapping phenoregions
  • Results
    • Predictive performances
    • Regions of similar phenology (‘phenoregions’) and associated temporal patterns
  • Discussion
  • Acknowledgements
  • Additional information
    • Conflict of interest
    • Ethical statement
    • Funding
    • Author contributions
    • Author ORCIDs
    • Data availability
  • References
  • Supplementary material
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