Examples of daily predictions obtained from the modelling approach. These represent the probability of occurrence for each modelled phenological stage for four species (imago-stage of the Geranium bronze [a]; medusae of the freshwater jellyfish [b], flowering of the floating primrose-willow [c] and flowering of garden lupine [d]), for 1 July 2023. Predictions were obtained using random forests, the best performing algorithm, trained with observational data corrected for spatial bias.

 
 
  Part of: Capinha C, Monteiro AT, Ceia-Hasse A (2024) Supporting early detection of biological invasions through short-term spatial forecasts of detectability. NeoBiota 96: 191-210. https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.96.129547