Boyce Index values for forecasts made 1, 3, 6 and 9 days in advance. These values correspond to the Pearson correlation coefficient between predicted probabilities of event occurrence from July 2023 to March 2024 and the frequency of event observations recorded during the same period. The values are reported for three modelling algorithms—boosted regression trees (BRT), generalised linear models with lasso regularisation (Lasso) and random forest (RF)—as well as an ensemble of these algorithms (Ensemble), all trained with observation data corrected for spatial bias.