Regional patterns of predicted and observed timings of the emergence of the imago stage in the Geranium bronze butterfly (panels a–c), the occurrence of medusae in the freshwater jellyfish (panels d–f) and the flowering phases of floating primrose-willow (panels g–i) and garden lupine (panels j–l). The maps display areas having similar phenological dynamics (‘phenoregions’), based on daily projections at 5-days intervals from 2016 to 2022. Grey areas represent Köppen climate classes where fewer than five observations of the species were made. These classes were not included in the analysis to minimise the risk of model extrapolation. Time series depict the inter-annual mean probabilities of occurrence of each event, along with their ranges (grey shading), for each region throughout the year. Histograms show the monthly frequency of effectively observed occurrences of each life stage within each phenoregion. Predictions and phenoregion delineations were made also for areas where the species have not yet been recorded, leading to observation records being absent from the histograms for certain regions.