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  • ContentsContents
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  • Article title
  • Abstract
  • Key words
  • Introduction
  • Materials and methods
    • Species occurrences
    • Bioclimatic, elevation and habitat variables
    • Species Distribution Modelling framework
    • Resistance-Distance Constrained dispersal models
      • Dispersal distance
      • Resistance surfaces
      • Resistance cost threshold
      • Future invasion scenarios in the USA, South Korea and Japan, and potential invasion scenario in Europe
  • Results
    • SDMs performance and effect of covariates
    • SDM projections at the global, ESEA, USA and European scale
    • Resistance-Distance Constrained Dispersal Model: invasion scenario in USA, South Korea, Japan and Europe
      • Annual dispersal distance
      • Resistance surfaces and cost thresholds
      • Future invasion scenarios in the USA, South Korea and Japan, and potential invasion scenario in Europe
  • Discussion
    • Species distribution model: comparative evaluation
    • Evaluation of SDM projections
    • Range expansion model and invasion scenarios
    • Pest status perspectives
  • Conclusions
  • Acknowledgements
  • Additional information
    • Conflict of interest
    • Ethical statement
    • Use of AI
    • Funding
    • Author contributions
    • Author ORCIDs
    • Data availability
  • References
  • Supplementary materials
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