Global suitability for fall armyworm and likely invasion routes. a Potential global distribution of fall armyworm, as predicted by an ensemble of SDMs constructed using all distribution data and with four pseudo-absence datasets. SDMs were permitted into the ensemble if the TSS from internal cross-validation was ≥0.4. The ensemble was calculated as the mean of projections from all permitted SDMs, each model weighted by the cross-validated TSSb uncertainty in projections, as calculated by the variation between all projections included in the ensemble c value of all exports from 2012–2016 from source sub-Saharan African countries climate to vulnerable countries outside sub-Saharan Africa. The top 5% of trading relationships between these countries are shown and the five colour categories represent 20% quantiles of export values d number of passengers in 2013 travelling from source sub-Saharan African countries with their final destination in vulnerable countries outside sub-Saharan Africa. The top 13% of travel routes between these countries are shown and the five colour categories represent 20% quantiles of passenger numbers.