Conceptual depiction of the utility of different modeling methods and of the trade-offs between data availability within a focal region and relevance of model outputs for Early Detection and Rapid Response (EDRR) within that region. Range-wide modeling is appropriate where there is little variation in the relationship between a species’ occurrence and environmental conditions. Where local populations are differentiated in their responses to the environment, hierarchical or regionalized models are expected to produce the most relevant predictions for within the region, and the selection among model types may depend on data availability, institutional capacity, and time horizon for delivering results. The relevance of model outputs for EDRR is high only very early in an invasion, when few data are available; therefore, range-wide modeling is expected to remain the primary tool used to anticipate habitat suitability for non-native species.

  Part of: Jarnevich CS, Sofaer HR, Belamaric P, Engelstad P (2022) Regional models do not outperform continental models for invasive species. NeoBiota 77: 1-22.