Research Article |
Corresponding author: Philip E. Hulme ( philip.hulme@lincoln.ac.nz ) Academic editor: John Ross Wilson
© 2020 Philip E. Hulme, Richard Baker, Robert Freckleton, Rosemary S. Hails, Matt Hartley, John Harwood, Glenn Marion, Graham C. Smith, Mark Williamson.
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Citation:
Hulme PE, Baker R, Freckleton R, Hails RS, Hartley M, Harwood J, Marion G, Smith GC, Williamson M (2020) The Epidemiological Framework for Biological Invasions (EFBI): an interdisciplinary foundation for the assessment of biosecurity threats. In: Wilson JR, Bacher S, Daehler CC, Groom QJ, Kumschick S, Lockwood JL, Robinson TB, Zengeya TA, Richardson DM. NeoBiota 62: 161-192. https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.62.52463
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Emerging microparasite (e.g. viruses, bacteria, protozoa and fungi) epidemics and the introduction of non-native pests and weeds are major biosecurity threats worldwide. The likelihood of these threats is often estimated from probabilities of their entry, establishment, spread and ease of prevention. If ecosystems are considered equivalent to hosts, then compartment disease models should provide a useful framework for understanding the processes that underpin non-native species invasions. To enable greater cross-fertilisation between these two disciplines, the Epidemiological Framework for Biological Invasions (EFBI) is developed that classifies ecosystems in relation to their invasion status: Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Resistant. These states are linked by transitions relating to transmission, latency and recovery. This viewpoint differs markedly from the species-centric approaches often applied to non-native species. It allows generalisations from epidemiology, such as the force of infection, the basic reproductive ratio R0, super-spreaders, herd immunity, cordon sanitaire and ring vaccination, to be discussed in the novel context of non-native species and helps identify important gaps in the study of biological invasions. The EFBI approach highlights several limitations inherent in current approaches to the study of biological invasions including: (i) the variance in non-native abundance across ecosystems is rarely reported; (ii) field data rarely (if ever) distinguish source from sink ecosystems; (iii) estimates of the susceptibility of ecosystems to invasion seldom account for differences in exposure to non-native species; and (iv) assessments of ecosystem susceptibility often confuse the processes that underpin patterns of spread within -and between- ecosystems. Using the invasion of lakes as a model, the EFBI approach is shown to present a new biosecurity perspective that takes account of ecosystem status and complements demographic models to deliver clearer insights into the dynamics of biological invasions at the landscape scale. It will help to identify whether management of the susceptibility of ecosystems, of the number of vectors, or of the diversity of pathways (for movement between ecosystems) is the best way of limiting or reversing the population growth of a non-native species. The framework can be adapted to incorporate increasing levels of complexity and realism and to provide insights into how to monitor, map and manage biological invasions more effectively.
Alien, climate change, COVID-19, eradication, exotic, metapopulation, SEIR, state-and-transition models, vectors
Emerging microparasitic diseases and biological invasions by non-native species represent two of the most significant biological threats to the survival of endangered species, the ecological integrity of ecosystems, the economic productivity of agriculture and the quality of human health (
Differences between microparasites and non-native species that are considered in the Epidemiological Framework for Biological Invasions.
Characteristic | Microparasites (e.g. virus, bacteria, fungus) infecting animal or plant hosts | Non-native species (e.g. plant, invertebrate, vertebrate) invading ecosystems |
---|---|---|
Agent demography | Demography of the agent within a host is rarely quantified and is assumed to play a limited role in disease epidemiology | Non-native species population dynamics within ecosystems are important in invasion dynamics |
Agent distribution | Distribution of parasites amongst hosts is rarely modelled apart from whether infected or uninfected | Density varies amongst individual ecosystems and will influence demography and dispersal |
Agent specificity | Usually one or a few closely-related hosts | Can often be generalists found in many different ecosystem types |
Host distinctiveness | Usually easily defined (e.g. a particular species such as Homo sapiens) for which individuals can be distinguished | Ecosystems are more problematic to define as hosts, since they can sometimes grade into each other |
Host heterogeneity | Low heterogeneity amongst susceptible hosts arising from similarities in physiology and immunology within a species | High heterogeneity amongst susceptible hosts due to differences in abiotic conditions and biotic communities within each class of ecosystem |
Host immunity | Hosts, especially vertebrates, may naturally acquire short- or long-term immunity following infection | Ecosystems do not normally acquire natural immunity to further invasion by a species following its initial colonisation |
Host mobility | Animal hosts are often mobile and host movements can be critical in the dynamics of disease | Ecosystems are, to all intents and purposes, immobile and thus, as hosts, may be better captured by plant epidemiological models |
Host scale | With the exception of age-related variation, the size of a particular host species is similar across individuals | For a single ecosystem type, the area of individual localities can vary considerably |
Host vital rates | Hosts can die as a result of infection and can be born | Ecosystem are not usually viewed as having vital rates |
Vectors | Usually a living organism (e.g. mosquito, aphid) that carries microparasites from one host individual to another | Often a physical vehicle (e.g. train, car, boat) that transports a non-native species but can include living organisms (e.g. birds, humans) |
Epidemiologists have highlighted the crucial importance in disease management of integrating the population dynamics of the agents, as well as the states and transitions amongst receptors (
Progress in understanding the dynamics of biological invasions has largely been agent-centred (
Current understanding and management of emerging diseases has benefited from the progressive development of a multitude of epidemiological models (
Similarities between a simple Susceptible-Infectious-Resistant compartment model for a microparasitic disease and a state-and-transition model describing progressive ecosystem degradation. Both types of model show transitions between different states (solid arrows) with potential for reversal (dotted arrows).
Some might argue that, unlike hosts which are discrete entities (individual animals or plants), many ecosystems have far less clear-cut and temporally-stable boundaries (
The foregoing discussion of SIR and STM approaches highlights a sufficient number of parallels between microparasitic diseases and non-native species invasions to suggest that the bringing together of these different compartment perspectives may provide a valuable framework to further the current understanding of biological invasions. Indeed, epidemiological compartment models have been applied to describe the status of farms as Susceptible or Infectious in the analysis of foot-and-mouth disease (
1. Construct an epidemiological framework that captures the fundamental components of a compartment disease model for non-native species and invaded ecosystems.
2. Assess the relevance of the framework to non-native invasion dynamics in relation to the large body of theory that has addressed microparasite infections.
3. Examine the implications of the compartment disease model perspective for the management of biological invasions at the ecosystem level.
Given that epidemiological studies on non-native species have only been undertaken on those species that are pathogenic or parasitic (
The SIR model (Fig.
Schematic compartment model illustrating how ecosystems may be classified into four invasion states (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Resistant) linked by transitions relating transmission of non-native species amongst ecosystems, exposure and recovery. The characteristic dynamics within a receptor will exhibit three phases: a period prior to colonisation; growth as the local population increases; followed by fluctuations around the steady state. These phases can be identified with the epidemiological categorisations of Susceptible (no non-natives present), Exposed (low numbers of non-natives with essentially no dispersal) and Infectious (a viable population of non-native species contributing to dispersal). Termination of the Infectious state corresponds to the collapse of the meta-stable population due to stochastic events or some externally driven change (e.g. in the birth or death rates) or intervention which removes the local population and results in the receptor returning to either being Susceptible again or Resistant. Transitions between the four different states are: λ = the force of infection between Infectious and Susceptible ecosystems; θ = the rate at which an Exposed receptor reverts to become Susceptible; σ = the latency between initial exposure and infectivity; ξ = the rate of natural recovery of Infectious ecosystems to the Susceptible state; γ = the rate recovery of Infectious ecosystems following management to the Resistant state; ν = the rate which Resistant ecosystems enter the Susceptible state; μ = the rate which Susceptible ecosystems become Resistant. The total number of ecosystems (N) is given by the sum of the number of ecosystems in each state. Different weights for each arrow are for illustration only to highlight that transition rates between compartments differ and illustrate the probable importance of different transitions in biological invasions.
The overall framework proposed is simpler than compartment disease models since sex-structure, maternal effects and vertical transmission do not have clear equivalents when applied to ecosystems. Although ecosystems can be created and destroyed by humans (e.g. creation of water reservoirs versus the draining of lakes), the model does not include any processes that increase or reduce the numbers of ecosystems. A further difference is that many ecosystems, either inherently or through human activities, may be entirely unsuitable for occupation by a particular non-native species. These ecosystems are described as Resistant since the growth rate of a non-native population is likely to be negative and extinction will be an inevitable consequence of any colonisation event. Resistant ecosystems are only included in compartment models if they can become Susceptible through some external agency (e.g. climate change, anthropogenic disturbance), otherwise they play no part in the epidemiology of invasion. Resistant ecosystems may be transformed into Susceptibles (at a rate ν) by a range of external pressures (e.g. fire, grazing, climate change, eutrophication). Similarly, Susceptibles can be transformed into the Resistant state (at a rate μ) by the reversal of many of those pressures. In contrast to SEIR models, this can occur without having to pass through the Exposed state. Thus, unlike standard SEIR models, at the beginning of any simulation, the Resistant state will contain ecosystems that have never been Exposed, but are capable of being transformed to become Susceptible.
The characteristic dynamics of non-native species within an ecosystem will exhibit three phases: a period associated with early colonisation; growth of the non-native population; followed by fluctuations around a steady state. These phases correspond to the following states: Susceptible (no agent present), Exposed (low numbers of agents with no dispersal outside of the ecosystem) and Infectious (a viable population of agents contributing to dispersal). Transition from the Exposed (at a rate θ, Fig.
By examining the similarities and differences between microparasitic diseases and non-native species invasions for the different compartments of an SEIR disease model, it may be possible to identify the key parameters of an Epidemiological Framework for Biological Invasions that will facilitate cross-fertilisation between disease and invasion biology.
Certain ecosystems are known to be inherently more susceptible to the colonisation by a non-native species than others. At any one time within a population of N ecosystems (which could be different ecosystem types or different areas of a single ecosystem type), the rate of change in the number of Susceptible ecosystems (S) will be a function of the rate at which Susceptibles become infected and move to the Exposed class (λ, the force of infection), become resistant and move to the Resistant class (μS) , as well as the rates at which Infectious (ξI), Exposed (θE) and Resistant (νR) classes become Susceptible (Fig.
(1)
Susceptibility can be viewed at two levels: amongst different types of receptors (e.g. woodlands, grasslands and wetlands) and within a single receptor type (e.g. coniferous forest). Intriguingly, the balance of effort has differed between disease and invasion studies: the former have focused more strongly on intra-host variability (
Analogous factors also exist that influence susceptibility to microparasites and non-native species within a specific host or ecosystem. Host age, homeostatic disturbance, intercurrent disease, microbial antagonism and MHC diversity have all been proposed to influence host susceptibility to microparasites (
However, an important issue when examining ecosystem vulnerability to invasion is the need to control for variation in exposure to colonisation by non-native species (e.g. propagule pressure), because this is rarely independent of the type of ecosystem. When this has been taken into account, emerging hypotheses are that ecosystems that naturally experience recurrent disturbances and are rich in available nutrients are most susceptible to invasion (
The transitions between the Susceptible and Exposed and Infectious states have received considerable empirical and theoretical attention with reference to the factors shaping disease transmission (
(2)
Epidemiological approaches have tended to focus on the spread of a disease following its establishment in the host population (
In the case of local direct transmission or spread of diseases, the simplest model assumes that exposure is a product of the numbers of Susceptible and Infectious receptors linked by a transmission function (
Where mixing is known to be non-random but the variation in individual contact rates is poorly known, lattice models, in which random connections between neighbouring sites facilitate transmission, have been used to assess the role of connectivity and spatial heterogeneity in disease epidemics (
Network models have been used to model the connections between individuals linked to the spread of sexually-transmitted diseases (
Once it has been infected or colonised by an agent and assuming there is growth of the agent population, a Susceptible receptor enters the Exposed state. The transition of Exposed receptors to the Infectious state is determined by the latent period or lag-phase (determined by 1/σ), that reflects the time elapsed before the emergence of symptoms of disease or noticeable impacts of the non-native species. For many diseases, the “latent period” is so brief that the Exposed state is not incorporated into compartment models, although the human prion disease, kuru, has an incubation period of between 40 and 60 years (
Once exposed and possibly following a latent period or lag-phase, a receptor may become Infectious. Whether or not an Exposed receptor transitions to the Infectious state will depend on the ability of the agent population to produce migrants or propagules that can colonise other receptors. This ability will be affected by the nature of density-dependence (including Allee effects) and the generation time of the agent (
While metapopulation models have been used to understand the spatial dynamics of disease (
The minimum evidence for classifying a receptor as Infectious is the persistence of the microparasite or non-native species. Such evidence is usually obtained through expression of symptoms or impacts on the receptor or detection of a persistent population of the agent using serological techniques or field surveys. Nevertheless, not all receptors classified as Infectious in this way may actually be capable of infecting Susceptible receptors. Furthermore, not all Infectious receptors will be symptomatic. As has been seen with COVID-19, asymptomatic hosts can contribute to the spread of disease, but go largely undetected and can therefore undermine efforts to control transmission (
In microparasitic diseases, the Infectious state comes to an end through the recovery or death of the host. Recovery may result from a natural acquired immune response and may render a receptor Resistant to further infection, either permanently (e.g. measles) or temporarily, in which the receptor becomes Susceptible at some time in the future (e.g. common cold). Alternatively, human intervention such as chemotherapy (e.g. antiviral drugs, antibiotics, fungicides, pesticides etc.) can lead to recovery, but only to the Susceptible rather than Resistant state. Evidence for natural recovery of ecosystems following invasion is scarce, although several cases of boom and bust dynamics of non-native species, where formerly widespread populations collapse, have been documented (
In the case of microparasites, a high rate of transition to the Resistant state shortens the duration of the Infectious state, thus lowering the opportunities for transmission (
The incorporation of host vital rates (births and deaths) into microparasite models can have dramatic implications for disease dynamics (
The foregoing sections have shown that, just as hosts may be viewed as ecosystems (
The Epidemiological Framework for Biological Invasions is receptor-focused and, although complementary to more traditional agent-focused demographic models, it provides new opportunities to understand biological invasions. The agent-centred approach to biological invasions assumes the probability of successful invasion is a function of the intrinsic rate of population increase when a non-native species is rare (
In models of biological invasions, Infectious receptors act as sources that are capable of infecting Susceptible receptors, but can also maintain non-native species populations in Exposed receptors that would otherwise become extinct without immigration. Sink ecosystems have been observed for non-native fish (
A much-debated approach for the management of microparasitic diseases is “ring vaccination” that targets immunisation to particular groups of Infectious receptors in order to prevent the spread of disease agents (
A more dramatic form of intervention is the establishment of a cordon sanitaire where locations containing high risk hosts are almost sealed from the outside world with severe restrictions placed on the movement in or out of the cordon sanitaire (
The concept of “herd immunity” in which there may be a critical community size, beneath which persistence of metapopulations is not possible, has been influential in microparasitic disease management, since it suggests that only a proportion (albeit often high) of receptors needs to be managed (immunised) to prevent the persistence of disease (
There appear to be opportunities to apply a more epidemiological perspective to the spatio-temporal dynamics of non-native species, but the real test of the value of the Epidemiological Framework for Biological Invasions will be in its application to a specific case study. Lake ecosystems (including ponds and impoundments) are widely recognised as being discrete units in the landscape and, while connectivity amongst lakes can often occur through natural watercourses or anthropogenic canals, the boundaries between lake ecosystems and surrounding ecosystems are often clear cut (
The wide range of insights, tools and approaches, arising from over a century of work in modelling disease dynamics (
This work resulted from a workshop (Towards an integrated assessment of the environmental risks posed by non-native species, GMOs and wildlife diseases) held as part of the UK Population Biology Network (UKPopNet) and funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (Agreement R8-H12-01) and English Nature. Its development was stimulated by the workshop on ‘Frameworks used in Invasion Science’ hosted by the DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biology that was supported by the National Research Foundation of South Africa and Stellenbosch University. The authors would like to thank John Wilson, Paul Caplat, Gordon Copp and Ernest Gould for comments on a previous version of this manuscript.